Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means -0.838 1.370 1.534 1.575
ratio_of_sd 0.980 0.969 0.909 0.914
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.816 0.779 0.609 0.641
maximum_error 0.208 0.148 0.154 0.173
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.196 0.179 0.347 0.323
qqplot_mae 0.048 0.058 0.093 0.103
acf_mae 0.087 0.094 0.140 0.126
extremogram_mae 0.043 0.034 0.074 0.065

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 0.500 0.718 0.758 -1.629
ratio_of_sd 0.962 0.909 0.899 0.978
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.779 0.641 0.609 0.817
maximum_error 0.176 0.174 0.152 0.213
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.109 0.245 0.324 0.175
qqplot_mae 0.072 0.115 0.106 0.079
acf_mae 0.087 0.118 0.130 0.079
extremogram_mae 0.013 0.044 0.041 0.015

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means -0.885 1.373 1.649 1.685
ratio_of_sd 0.969 0.955 0.891 0.897
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.829 0.786 0.610 0.643
maximum_error 0.218 0.173 0.146 0.163
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.151 0.126 0.310 0.279
qqplot_mae 0.062 0.068 0.107 0.118
acf_mae 0.068 0.075 0.122 0.111
extremogram_mae 0.037 0.041 0.071 0.066

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost naive lstm cnn
diff_of_means -4.327 -4.509 -4.754 -6.878
ratio_of_sd 0.971 0.990 1.029 1.055
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.638 0.665 0.804 0.848
maximum_error 0.180 0.135 0.201 0.248
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.405 0.388 0.274 0.263
qqplot_mae 0.173 0.178 0.188 0.272
acf_mae 0.132 0.128 0.094 0.095
extremogram_mae 0.135 0.131 0.093 0.093

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.753 36.022 36.479 38.667
ratio_of_sd 0.641 0.546 0.610 0.671
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.645 0.368 0.522 0.607
maximum_error 0.166 0.269 0.239 0.196
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.062 0.373 0.233 0.040
qqplot_mae 1.295 1.425 1.442 1.529
acf_mae 0.031 0.128 0.084 0.049
extremogram_mae 0.027 0.045 0.026 0.009

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 33.020 36.673 37.285 39.359
ratio_of_sd 0.631 0.529 0.599 0.658
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.647 0.361 0.526 0.604
maximum_error 0.177 0.273 0.213 0.225
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.043 0.323 0.204 0.102
qqplot_mae 1.305 1.451 1.474 1.556
acf_mae 0.045 0.115 0.067 0.040
extremogram_mae 0.030 0.032 0.019 0.028

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.468 35.896 36.372 38.496
ratio_of_sd 0.646 0.543 0.607 0.674
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.657 0.371 0.525 0.624
maximum_error 0.161 0.278 0.227 0.217
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.074 0.357 0.221 0.089
qqplot_mae 1.284 1.420 1.438 1.522
acf_mae 0.043 0.125 0.084 0.047
extremogram_mae 0.052 0.027 0.027 0.036

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97